PREMIUM PLAY
SEPTEMBER 12, 2024
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ARIZONA STATE -2 AT TEXAS STATE +2
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We get a nice surprise tomorrow with 2 exciting matchups. The 2X TV setup is recommended here. The Thursday NFL matchup is worth watching for a change. The Bills play the Dolphins which should provide some exciting action even on a short week.
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Our focus this week will be on the college matchup. We like the Bobcats +2 as a 1.5X play.
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ARIZONA STATE - Kenny Dillingham is an OFFENSIVE minded coach. He was given his start by Mike Norvell (Florida State) at Memphis. His QB Sam Leavitt beat out Jeff Sims for the starting job. Neither are standouts at the position. I'm surprised Leavitt is starting really. Sims is a duel-threat who puts more fear in the D than Leavitt. Sims' issue is turnovers or he would still be at Georgia Tech.
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Sun Devil's RB Cam Skattebo is a workhorse. He had 33 carries for 262 yards against Mississippi State. He also caught 3 balls for 35 yards. He won Doak Walker, AP Offensive Player of Week and just about every offensive award with 300 all-purpose yards. ASU will look to lean on Skattebo again.
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The passing game has been limited. Leavitt has not shown the ability to get the ball deep with consistency. Thursday will be his first road start. Look for a conservative dink-and-dunk passing attack with maybe an early hail mary throw as a heat check. One positive on the Arizona State WRs. They are coached by Hines Ward and are excellent in run blocking.
Arizona State kicking game doesn't scare me. I watched their kicker miss from inside 40. I doubt he's a threat from 50. They average 37 net punting yards.
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TEXAS STATE - Head Coach G.J. Kinne played Quarterback briefly at Oklahoma and then starred at Tulsa. He is a student of Gus Malzahn. He will use spread formations to create running and passing lanes. He brought in plenty of transfer talent and it takes a sharp coach to succeed quickly using this formula. Kinne has a high football IQ and his QB Jordan McCloud is a seasoned veteran. He is on his 4th college roster which began at South Florida and travelled through Tucson and Harriburg Virginia. He led James Madison to an undefeated 2023 season.​​
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The Bobcats have 2 talented Running Backs. Ismael Mahdi and Lincoln Pare will provide plenty of big plays as as well as solid protection when needed.
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TSU spreads the ball to a variety of receivers. Chris Dawn Jr is a 5'7 firecracker. Bobcats try to get him the ball in space and let him do his thing.
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​​Texas State Special Teams don't appear to be game changers. 2 of 3 FGs with a miss from 40-49. Net punting 34.8 yards
​​​​TEXAS STATE should be able to pressure Leavitt as the Sun Devils have graded low in pass blocking both weeks. Expect Texas State to play chaotic, diruptive football. This will shorten the clock in Leavitt's head and force ASU to rely on the run game. Can Skattebo carry the load on a short week after heaviest workload of his career? He's a Senior and this is a National TV game so I say, Yes. His ability to get first downs and provide relief for his defense will be noted.
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Jordan McCloud transferred from JMU to play on a special team. This is college football in 2024. Like it or not, this is the end product. Can Texas State win this game isn't really the question. Can Texas State play in a Playoff game? That's the big question.
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TEXAS STATE will defeat Arizona State outright as 2 point dogs. This is a false favorite. ASU is a money team in Vegas as their alum love to party and gamble. (It's no secret ASU is a party school)
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Most casual bettors will overlook this game for the NFL game. The ones that do use it in a parlay will probably take the favorite.
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TEXAS STATE +2 as a 1.5X Play The public will continue to bet Arizona State so it's no rush. I got my 2 locked in. If I see 2.5, I will buy to 3 and put another unit on TEXAS STATE
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